![]() ![]() That is to say: The interest rate on three-month government bonds is now higher than the interest rate on ten-year government bonds. ![]() What’s changed in the last month? Two main things: We got a weak jobs report for February after several strong reports, and the Treasury yield curve inverted. It’s still not time to panic - but there’s reason to be a little more worried. Since then, economic indicators have gotten a little worse. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesĪ month ago, I wrote that it’s not yet time to worry about a recession. Are bond markets signaling a recession - or simply calculating the effects of Trump’s pressure campaign on Fed Chairman Powell? ![]()
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